There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
betvisa on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.