There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Plenty of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. This is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. new88 were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.