"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. You bet Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off as well. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the second game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If https://go884.club/ split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful replacement for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."