"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the next game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the point that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. Win55 of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out of your two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."